Reflection of the day
2026.07.14
“Before us lies Bab el-Mandab—a bleak, barren rocky landscape where the scorching heat of the desert meets the humidity of the sea. The place seems tailor-made for the name ‘Gate of Tears.’”
Sir Richard Francis Burton, British explorer of Africa and military officer (1821–1890)
For centuries, the strait between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean was considered a challenging passage by seafarers. The Greek trade manual Periplus Maris Erythraei, likely written in the first century, mentions that the area is “narrow and crisscrossed by dangerous currents (...), the coasts are rugged and lack a safe harbor.”
Portuguese sailors of the early 16th century were well aware of the strategic importance of the strait: “The entrance to the strait is so narrow and treacherous that only a few ships can pass through it at the same time. “Whoever closes the gates of this sea holds the key to all the treasures of India and Arabia,” wrote Afonso de Albuquerque to his king, Manuel I, around 1513.
Because of the dangerous currents, Arab merchants in the Middle Ages came to call the strait Bab el-Mandab: the Gate of Tears.
The strategic importance of Bab el-Mandab is once again being brought to the world’s attention today: The Houthi militias in Yemen, allied with Iran, fired on two tankers loaded with crude oil from Saudi Arabia early Thursday morning, carrying out the threat they had issued earlier this week to impose a naval blockade against Saudi oil exports.
After the Strait of Hormuz—the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean—had been the primary focus over the past five months, financial markets are now forced to turn their attention to a second “choke point” in the region.
Following the news on Thursday, the price of Brent crude—the benchmark grade—rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in two months.
And it will rise ....my prediction
2026.06.02
Markets Hit Records as War Halts 20% of Global Oil Supply
On Monday evening, the S&P 500 closed at 7,600 points. A new all-time high. So did the Nasdaq. And the Dow Jones. All three at the same time, for the fourth consecutive session—something that hadn’t happened since November 2021. That’s the reality of the numbers. The other reality is that on that same day, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Kuwait, the Strait of Hormuz remained technically closed, and Trump posted on Truth Social asking us to “relax.” The markets obeyed.
2026.04.02
Following the escalation of the Iran conflict in early 2026, disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a global fuel crisis, pushing prices higher and straining supply chains worldwide. Governments have responded with a wide range of emergency measures aimed at shielding consumers and securing domestic supply, ranging from financial support to rationing as the fuel crisis deepens.
It’s going to be worse before it gets better...
2026.04.01
TRUMP WAGES WAR THE SAME WAY HE MAKES DEALS: FAST, SLOPPY, AND WITH A SMARTPHONE
Last night, Wall Street skyrocketed. Not because the economy is doing better. Not because earnings are strong. Not because growth and employment are at their peak. No. It skyrocketed because Trump said he might end a war he himself started. The Dow jumped by more than 1,000 points. The Nasdaq by 3.8%. Investors cheered as if the end of cancer had just been announced. We’re not out of the woods yet, but at least we’ve found a way to end this rotten month of March on a slightly better note. On the other hand, oil is at $103, and clearly—it—didn’t get the memo about peace.
2026.01.05
Defenders of the “American” empire imagine its dominance to be immutable. Objectivity is therefore often lost in the maze of slow change. Yet the transformation is happening before our very eyes: we are moving from a unipolar world ruled by the greenback to a fragmented multipolar world.
Thus, the last stand we are witnessing, although supported by unprecedented technological acceleration, seems only to be delaying the inevitable. Between internal tensions, record debt, and the rise of the Global South, long-term forces are pushing for a redistribution of power. History is repeating itself: after the last stand usually comes the eclipse, giving way to a new world order where one or more future powers will emerge through new and probably unprecedented alliances.